👉Be positive.

👉 Why are you such a pessimist?

👉 Think positively and everything will work out.

But is positive thinking just wishful thinking?
Or is there real psychological evidence that it actually works?

I decided to explore this question more seriously. Instead of relying on motivational slogans, I wanted tangible proof that a positive attitude can influence outcomes.

Expectancy theory, developed by Canadian psychologist Victor Vroom in 1964 at the Yale School of Management ¹, suggests something powerful: we are motivated to act when we believe our effort will lead to good performance , and that performance will lead to a desirable outcome.

In simple terms, people try harder when they believe their actions matter.

The theory is built around three core elements:

This is your belief that your actions influence the outcome. If you don’t believe your effort makes a difference, your motivation drops before you even begin.

This is the connection you see between performance and results. If success doesn’t seem to lead to anything meaningful - recognition, income, growth, satisfaction - you are less likely to invest energy.

This refers to how valuable the outcome feels to you personally. Even if success is possible and rewarded, motivation fades if the reward doesn’t truly matter to you.

MOTIVATION = EXPECTANCY x INSTRUMENTALITY x VALENCE²

If any of these three elements weaken, motivation weakens with them.

This is where positive thinking enters the picture.

When grounded in reality, positive thinking strengthens the expectancy component. If you believe your effort has a real chance of leading to progress, you are more likely to act, persist, and stay engaged.

But imagine someone constantly thinking: It won’t work anyway. I’m not capable. There’s no point in trying.

According to expectancy theory, motivation naturally decreases in this mindset. Reduced effort then leads to poorer results - which reinforces the original negative belief.

Let’s look at Jane.

Jane runs a small business designing and sewing sportswear. The details may differ, but her situation reflects many career paths.

She started with enthusiasm. She believed that if she worked hard, improved her designs, and marketed consistently, her brand could grow. She stayed up late learning about fabrics, refining patterns, and posting regularly on social media.

But after a few months, sales were slower than expected.

Some posts received little engagement. A product launch didn’t bring many orders. A competitor with a larger budget appeared online.

Slowly, her inner dialogue shifted: Maybe I’m not talented enough. There are too many brands already. It probably won’t work anyway.

Without realizing it, Jane’s expectancy dropped. She no longer believed that her effort would lead to success.

And her behavior changed. She posted less frequently. She stopped experimenting with new designs. She delayed responding to customers. She avoided learning new marketing strategies.

Her reduced effort led to fewer results - which confirmed her new belief:
See? It’s not working.

But the real shift did not happen in the market.
It happened in her expectations.

If Jane had maintained a growth-oriented belief: Sales are slow because I’m still learning. I need a better strategy, not less effort. Every business grows at a different pace. - her actions would have remained consistent.

She would have tested new approaches, sought feedback, improved her branding, and stayed visible.

Positive thinking does not guarantee success.
But losing belief in the connection between effort and outcome almost guarantees stagnation.

And this is exactly where expectancy theory meets growth mindset.

If expectancy theory explains why belief influences motivation, the growth mindset explains how that belief shapes long-term development.

Psychologist Carol Dweck introduced the idea that people tend to operate from one of two mindsets³ :

A person with a fixed mindset may think:

If I fail, it means I’m not good enough.

This weakens expectancy. If abilities are fixed, effort feels pointless. Motivation declines.

A person with a growth mindset thinks:

If I fail, I can learn and improve.

This strengthens expectancy. Effort becomes meaningful. Improvement becomes possible. Action feels logical rather than risky.

In other words, a growth mindset reinforces the belief that effort influences outcomes - which expectancy theory identifies as essential for motivation.

💫Maybe positive thinking is not about forcing ourselves to smile in difficult moments. Maybe it is about choosing an interpretation of reality that keeps us active rather than defeated. Because the moment we stop believing that our actions matter, we quietly step out of the game. And no strategy, no talent, no opportunity can compensate for that.